This increase in rainfall has hindered these regions from fully transitioning to the dry season as expected. “Our seasonal and monthly predictions released since March indicated above-normal rainfall anomalies in these areas, which is the primary basis for forecasting the delay in this year’s dry season,” Dwikorita explained. During April and May, several regions in southern Indonesia experienced above-normal rainfall, including South Sumatra, Java, Bali, NTB, NTT, parts of Kalimantan, some areas of Sulawesi, and southern Papua. This pattern indicates that the transition to the dry season is not uniform across Indonesia.
However, based on BMKG’s analysis of rainfall data for the first ten days of June 2025, various regions are beginning to show signs of shifting towards dry conditions. Approximately 72 percent of the areas are categorized as normal, 23 percent as below normal (drier than usual), and only about 5 percent are still experiencing above-normal rainfall. This suggests that a trend of decreasing rainfall is starting to be felt in most parts of Indonesia, although it is not yet evenly distributed. Dwikorita pointed out that regions like Sumatra and Kalimantan have already experienced several consecutive ten-day periods with below-normal rainfall, making the early signs of the dry season more apparent there than in southern Indonesia.
According to the latest monthly weather forecast, BMKG predicts that above-normal rainfall conditions will persist in some areas until October 2025. Consequently, BMKG reaffirms that the dry season of 2025 is likely to be shorter than usual, with rainfall remaining above normal. The continued high rainfall during the dry season presents two significant consequences that must be understood and addressed appropriately. On one hand, the presence of rain during the dry season can be a blessing for rice farmers, as irrigation water supply remains relatively stable, supporting planting and agricultural production.
On the other hand, increased rainfall during the dry season poses risks to horticultural crops, which are generally more sensitive to high humidity. Horticultural plants such as chili, onions, and tomatoes are particularly vulnerable to pest and disease attacks due to excess moisture. “We encourage horticultural farmers to prepare for these conditions by establishing effective drainage systems and adequate plant protection,” Dwikorita advised.
Dwikorita emphasized the importance of preparedness among various stakeholders, including local governments and communities, to respond to the increasingly unpredictable climate dynamics. “We can no longer rely on old climate patterns. Global climate change is causing anomalies that we must be vigilant about, and adaptation must be swift and precise,” she stated.
